Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 21.003170 22.158179 23.369480 24.739169 26.250625 27.874149 29.758748
2026-02-01 19.125817 20.685049 22.392363 24.416150 26.770509 29.449706 32.768747
2026-02-08 17.875952 19.620798 21.581721 23.975303 26.856035 30.262996 34.679402
2026-02-15 17.044166 18.938810 21.115126 23.839341 27.217367 31.354127 36.949026
2026-02-22 16.630813 18.692039 21.108874 24.208063 28.165239 33.184282 40.279076
2026-03-01 15.979259 18.111283 20.649478 23.963986 28.292301 33.935603 42.203658
2026-03-08 15.205843 17.338634 19.905724 23.302651 27.812945 33.816920 42.859724
2026-03-15 14.690032 16.855698 19.492423 23.030707 27.813089 34.324841 44.438552
2026-03-22 14.527316 16.799253 19.605312 23.438173 28.738597 36.172695 48.206612
2026-03-29 14.301723 16.649597 19.585689 23.659028 29.408084 37.691805 51.631634
2026-04-05 14.092107 16.508568 19.565878 23.870513 30.066668 39.234474 55.280031
2026-04-12 13.779988 16.221688 19.339209 23.780103 30.273694 40.091146 57.847168
2026-04-19 13.373271 15.810483 18.947428 23.462659 30.159129 40.485068 59.743670
2026-04-26 12.983784 15.410242 18.556501 23.128844 30.000300 40.795922 61.538733
2026-05-03 12.599638 15.003731 18.140513 22.736497 29.722368 40.877556 62.885074
2026-05-10 12.333509 14.745550 17.916633 22.609500 29.843222 41.631115 65.685085
2026-05-17 12.244870 14.720760 18.010280 22.947165 30.710048 43.737587 71.694642
2026-05-24 11.972941 14.439322 17.736047 22.723966 30.658828 44.209521 74.199672
2026-05-31 11.588454 13.995228 17.220934 22.119099 29.952044 43.435140 73.703261
2026-06-07 11.337816 13.728156 16.947866 21.870040 29.818958 43.708270 75.751468
2026-06-14 11.298493 13.748908 17.081400 22.243134 30.740718 46.038640 83.366898
2026-06-21 11.207481 13.694830 17.104813 22.445192 31.382386 47.895670 90.288773
2026-06-28 11.117824 13.639525 17.123474 22.638572 32.018467 49.807620 97.955878